by Edward Trevillion
The sector directly contributed £8.2bn to the Scottish economy in 2012 or 7.2% of Scotland's total GDP (measured as Gross Value Added, GVA). The total contribution, including the indirect and induced contributions, was around £13.1bn. The direct contribution had fallen to around £8bn by 2014.
Over the period 2001 to 2008 inclusive growth rates in the sector averaged around 5.5% pa compared with 3.3% pa for the Scottish economy as a whole and 5.4% pa for the financial sector in the UK as a whole. However, over the period 2009 to 2014 inclusive, sector output (measured as GVA) fell by on average 3.4% pa.
Sector GVA in Scotland in 2014 was 81% of its peak in 2008.
Output (GVA) in the Scottish financial sector was expected to grow by around 2.2% pa over the period 2015-2020 inclusive, although this may be affected by Brexit fear.
The sector employed 99,600 people in 2012 or 3.8% of total Scottish employment. It is estimated that this had fallen to 93,900 by the end of 2014.
Assets managed in Scotland represent a significant proportion (11% or £560bn in 2013) of the total asset management industry in the UK.
Constitutional uncertainties continue to represent major challenges for the sector.
In the last five years Edinburgh has fallen from equal 28th to 71st in the Global Financial Centres Index. Over the same period Glasgow has fallen in rank from 52nd to 70th but now ranks above Edinburgh.
In 2012 the Scottish financial sector exported 15.4% of its output overseas and 34.8% to the rest of the UK. Ć The total value of commercial property in Scotland in 2013 was £46bn of which £22bn was investment stock.
The debt secured against commercial property in Scotland by investment houses and banks in the UK and overseas amounted to £10.8bn at the end of 2013 (6% of the total debt secured against commercial property in the UK).
It is estimated that the total contribution of the commercial property industry to Scotland's overall output (GVA) was £5.99bn (including the indirect and induced elements of output) at the end of 2012, or 5.3% of Scottish GDP.
For the full chapter, please see: Trevillion, E. (2017) The Scottish Financial Sector. In Gibb, K., Maclennan, D., McNulty, K., & Comerford, M. (eds) Scottish Economy - A Living Book. London: Routledge. Available via this link.
Total GVA Added in the Financial Sector of the UK
- Data comes the ONS's 2016 Blue Book Publication; Series ID: KLV9